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The Mumbai incident has again proven instrumental in detracting the track 2 diplomacy and has flushed away all the gains of Confidence Building Measures that the two South Asian nuclear rivals had been up for the past half a decade. It clearly proves this very presumption wrong that ‘keeping all other maters hijacked by the Kashmir issue is insane and ill productive’. There had been a push in trade relations making Pakistan the most viable material supplier for the booming Indian housing industry, Sir Creek and other border issues were being sorted out, exchange of prisoners, visits of celebrities, swap of delegations, peace missions, matches, concerts…all being done while keeping the throbbing issue of Kashmir in lull.

A single incident thousands of miles away from the trigger of all previous wars proved fatal in opening the paradox again. This not only proves that normalizing relations on the pretext of ‘Kashmir-later’ strategy is not only flawed at its very core but jeopardizes any gains made in all other areas whether be diplomatic, trade or public front. Evident is case that the first and foremost causality of this fallacious strategy has been diplomatic disengagement, followed by withdrawal of trade and sporting events. It’s like erection of building on unsound grounds without strong lest any foundations at all. How beautiful it might look’ is bound to devour into the quicksand of myriad of sacrifices, the grave upon which its frail foundations were raised.

Kashmir is awakening. Excessively organized and yet peaceful processions engaging whole of the Muslim population has not only grabbed the attention of Indian and International media but has stirred the Indian policy makers. Previously all incidents were conveniently brushed aside’ being Pakistan sponsored and thus tagged interventionary’ but the latest spade of reaction from across the valley and the first ever economic blockade on the hands of Hindus has flared the relatively hibernated consciousness of freedom struggle against decades of Indian oppression. Seeing the magnitude of recoil, Indian media (known for keeping such issues buried) began questioning the logic of world’s largest democracy clamping sentiments of whole swathes of population. They for the first time ever sensed rage and exasperation that this Muslim community endured upon the hands of world’s largest military concentration. Indian government taken by surprise by the sheer size of Freedom marches ‘though always successful in defaming and debilitating such uprisings to be cross border instigations’ had its own hands bitten in an action to glorify Hindu hardliners by land transfer. Succeeded by incident that blazed the boiling sentiments’ a deliberate economic blockade as punishment on part of Hindus and Government; not only stirred the already fomented situation out of control but induced a cognizance of insecurity and discrimination on part of the sham democracy. This was first time in many years that the lost valley again heard the echoes of rousing Freedom, the roar that not only put cracks into the walls of Red Fort but clattered the world capitals.

Muhammad Shafqat

Nov 2008

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(Counter: “Indian embassy blast’ a ploy against whom”)

This article is an assessment of recent turmoil that is engulfing the subcontinent. Pakistan is stuck in a quagmire of controlling Taliban on its borders while muting imported insurgencies in its provinces. In such conflagration when intelligence is needed the most, its agency the ISI is becoming victim of a ploy, being sabotaged by blames and blemishes, Spiraling domestic turbulence has put Pakistan’s sovereignty at stake. But then we see the Indian embassy blast which took away her military attaché, series of explosions in all of major Indian cities, skirmishes on the Line of Control and surging violence in the valley of Jammu and Kashmir.

In regional context, there has always been a struggle of power and influence between these two adversaries. Deceit, blame game, act of derangement and behind the scene nihilism has always devoured the seemingly placate on-the-scene dialogues and confidence building measures. Recent spade of events on both the sides of border has put observers in an intriguing situation; they are in a fix as to blame who for what, the real players behind the deceptive veil and the distinction between victim and the suspect!

Pakistan is facing the worst crisis in its history, its military has never been stretched this far while operating on domestic front. It has now been seven years since it is fighting the American war on terror; it has made enemies out of its people while operating against them’ on dictates of western confidants. Instead of approval for its sacrifices, insurgencies and violence has been given in wrapped gift. Pakistan’s interior ministry has long been signaling complicity of foreign hand in flaring domestic crisis, which ranges from an all-out revolts, to bomb explosions in cities, particularly the high end military targets. In guise of Talibans, foreign hands are implicated in extending their own agendas. Both Iran and China has acknowledged this conspirational collusion and called for it to halt. Recent Pakistani statements openly declared Afghanistan and India behind this scrimmage.

But then after all the blows, Pakistan is still pressed to clamp its eyes and ears and ‘dilute’ its intelligence apparatus so that this country could be torn smoothly. Patience has run athin at both GHQ and Intelligence secretariat, and a need for response is strongly felt.

It had to be told to intriguers in a different yet clear language that they are not out of harms way either. They won’t have clam borders if ours are set blazed, their cities won’t breathe normal if ours are suffocated, their states won’t be at peace if ours are subverted and their personnel won’t be safe if not mend their ways. Thus there lies high probability that this time Indians are true about latest accusations! That is Pakistani agencies might really be involved in the recent spade of border clashes to Indian embassy incident, from bomb blasts in cities to soaring fray in Kashmir. ‘Warning shots’ to their Indian counterparts that any further footprints of their involvement in subverting country’s internal security would be backfired with an equal even larger blow, making lives in New Delhi thorny. If this is true indeed, it would be first time in recent decade that Pakistan has taken such drastic step to caution Indians of its dipping patience, it also point towards the severity of situation at home front that prompted it to take such measures.

Muhammad Shafqat

August 2008

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July 8, 2008. A powerful bomb ripped apart the Indian embassy in Afghanistan, killing 42 people and a military attaché. Mr. Karzai rushes to allege Pakistan and its spy agency ISI. India follows the same pitch and calls for agency’s dilution. United States is not impressed and does not see Pakistan’s involvement (though they also came up with ‘credible’ proofs later) Pakistan denounces this horrendous act and conveys its irreproachability.

Indian embassy in Afghanistan has always been a high profile target for Taliban, but amazingly through out these years it remained unscratched. Until a mutual understanding is reached that in order to undermine Pakistan’s security and hamper its military, intelligence apparatus needs to be impeded. So as a first step, come up with some hard proof of it being a bad boy, then on basis of these ‘facts’ push the Pakistani government to clamp her eyes and ears so that more unrest could be exported and insurgencies implanted!

If we start from the fact that Inter Services Intelligence is among the best spy agencies in the world and is unmatched in accomplishing tasks that falls in its purview, even the Indian officials in private meetings gives credit to its efficiency and reach. Is it conceivable that such a mature institution would perform blunders like attacking a foreign embassy and for what reasons? What could such acts possibly yield? Disrespect, embarrassment! Don’t such foul maneuvers serve more of enemy’s agenda! look who got all the points…Karzai’ in light of growing unease in White House for his failures, has got a renewed basis and pretext to divert as much attention form his incapability, Indians’ the ever soft corner and Americans’ a new suspect behind the ever drifting Afghanistan, while Pakistan’ all the blame, blemish and a new list of obligations.

Indian planners are obsessed with the G8 summits which are the converging point of world heavy weights to address global issues. They are in a fix to highlight their ‘plight’ on the hands of terrorists allegedly being harbored by its neighbor. Just look at the sequence…Remember the Ayodhya incident, Massacre of Sikhs in Indian Occupied Kashmir by Pakistan sponsored terrorists just a month before the 32^nd G8 meeting in UK. Series of Mumbai train blasts again by Pakistan sponsored group on the eve of 33^rd G8 meeting in Russia! And now the attack on Indian embassy in Afghanistan just a day before Mr. Singh left for the 34^th G8 summit in Japan!!

Question is’ why would Pakistani agencies or its so-called groups would commit such goofy acts of exposing themselves on crucial events? To attract bad press, I doubt it!

Proofs, well never ask for it. Indians never possess proofs; they are apathetic to any joint investigation for fear of exposing their own dirty hands. Remember the attack on Indian Parliament that drew both countries on brink of war, this happened despite of Pakistan’s offers for investigation even by some neutral party but they were bent on going after their own hidden agendas, and so has been the case with Mumbai and Indian embassy dramas when all out efforts for joint inquiries fell on tin ears. They have always got ‘credible proofs’ but not worth sharing!

Muhammad Shafqat

July 2008