While the world fights war on terror and struggles against the economic exigency, it scuffles further into the ensuing haze of gloomy clouds, clouds of portending storm’ the storm of inexorable energy crisis. We as a race are heralding towards a future that is deficient in means to quench our insatiable needs, we lie at the very doors of an era where major shifts are in the making’ tectonic leagues of sufficient versus the energy deficient nations are in the casting, tremors are about to jolt the conventional power centers while shifting the ballast of influence and dominion away from the traditional West. What would be the consequences of such a colossal shift? Is the world ready to embrace the czar of the likes of Viladamir, accept the models of Hugos, bow before the coffers of Sauds and live with the nuclear tipped Najaads? With resources becoming vital, scarce and expensive’ would energy be the next weapon of mass influence, the tool for global hegemony and a win chip for blank concessions?

We already have stepped into this precarious era! Demand is stripping supplies and it’s just a matter of time when a sudden stampede would trigger massive avalanche of antagonism and clash. And that matter of time is only strides away when the world would be back on its feet’ when confidence would resurrect, pushing economies to grow’ thus setting off the dormant strains to press the till-now hibernated fault lines to fracture and explode. Towing the bottom-line and realizing a simple fact; our planet with all its resources cannot brace even a fourth of human population at par with the American Dream, thus the very presumption of today’s developing giants striding towards the realization of such a delusion is not just fallacious but also destructive. Living and consuming at such pace would render this planet a premature death’ thus ramming its inhabitants on to the path of suicidal whirl!

With the race already on for sealing’ if not stealing world’s vitality chowks, significant repositioning of alliance and allegiances are in the making. With the energy hungry dragon awake’ ready to devour what ever it takes to quench its thirst, those already having stakes stands hassled and perturbed and while they are entangled into getting themselves unravel from the financial calamity’ the red beast sails across continents on acquisition splurge. Standing tall on reserves worth trillions with wings spread wide’ a single month of o-9 saw her sealing resources from swathes of Zuela to the seas of PetroBras, from Horn of Africa to the Nefts of Siberia, from mines of Alum to the corps of Australia. Thus the resurgent Dynasty is ready to roar and roar loud’ enough to scare off the fatigued and fragile. Does this lead world to a path of collision? Could this be the beginning of an age of confrontation and desolation?

While betting upon one thing; neither the West with all its power concentration nor the ascending East with growing dynamism and weight’ are ready to give up on their existing or realizing paradigms. Thus in an ideal world based upon the foundations of mutual respect, space and honor for each others prosperousness’ we see both working together’ efficiently harnessing the unexplored while sagaciously distributing the existing ones. This not only would avert a prodigious clash but save the rest from crowding-out shiver!

But unfortunately’ our world as it stands today has transformed tremendously; getting complex, confused, entangled and yet more wary! We as nation states have metamorphed to become more skeptical and dubious then betting on trust and truthfulness. We have integrated under the umbrella of WTO yet have ceased to exist under the aegis of the existence of commons. And as the world comes out of the Great Seizure’ and exerts to gain control of world supplies under the marathon to redeem the lost glory, the realm of attrition would undoubtedly swell and bleed. And thus would dawn the age of an era of the ‘clash for resources’ and the ’struggle for survival’

Muhammad Shafqat

April 2009

Though nobody really knows how the world economic crisis is going to end but one thing is for sure that’ future historians would draw parallels between the current credit crisis with that of the Great Depression’ as there lies extreme analogies between the two. The last pour was the outcome of the First World War and set into motion the Second, just like today’s GWOT’ and changed on its way the realm of economic philosophical thinking and theories that governed the world’ while founding the specter of paradigm for Global Financial System’ whose reign lasted for 80 long years. Just like exceptional growth in the era starting off 2000’ Great Depression also dressed up under the windfall of splendid wealth and strikingly’ both triggered from the collapse of mortgage industry’ resulted in a Domino crumple of Banking and Insurance sectors that lead to today’s calls of sundering the two’ sounding very similar to Steagall Act of last century.

Economies work in a loop’ a closed cycle and its very intriguing that after having sniffed through all the ebb we haven’t yet learned its very bible! The world as we see today ignore and forgets every thing ‘critical might that be’ the moment it deluges into the Nova of pro tempore fringes. Call this greed, passion, ignorance or madness, but the fact remains that’ droves of such aspirations ruined this world over and over again. Shall we learn or should we learn’ sounds ineffectual and abortive without shedding light on causes’ those been botched and forgotten.

The Fed Chairman accuses saving spree of East’ being the prolific ground of fall of the West! But this is just a small fraction of the whole story. Regulators on the western coast foresaw this rising tsunami charging right in their direction and instead of reinforcements they made levies go thin rather melt’ despite incontrovertible evidence of the havoc it shrouded in its seemingly placate torso…and we saw it come, wreak, devastate and level what ever surfaced in its chase. Excessive glut attenuated the interest rates and flooded credit quality with high volatility’ thus ruining and deforming the plinth of global financial solvency. This whole specter of easy-credit got flared up under the shadows of extravagant demand both on the government and public level, catalyzed by the milieu of tampered and manipulated regulations. The sunken tower of yields and gains was already swaying vigorously under the unsustainable winds, but instead of bracing the very foundations’ callous voraciousness and stupendous irresponsibility made this structure go gangling. A fractional hike in Fed interest rate was the trigger that unleashed the unforeseen demolition, making the “statue of recklessness” fall and fall hard. But all the tremors and terminations of century old institutions of the likes of Lehmans and AIGs were just the tip of iceberg, the captain and crew of the struggling Titanic are still not sure of the extent of damage underneath, they are scuffling to save the sinking giant.

The great spill has already ruined the lush interior while devouring it’s the most priciest assets, the team in order to lighten the mammoth of toxic burden has already shifted, unloaded or destroyed tonnage of its ruptured engines. The cost of saving onboard assets has shot to a whooping Eight Trillion, still no effort seems effective enough to bud the great leak. Just a simple loitering has soaked up Fifty Trillion out of the global stock and equity market’ yet prognostication of even greater spoilage looms with blatant conspicuousness. The ripples of this seizure have already jostled shores of the entire world, but would this world come to rescue of struggling Captain and how would they trail the plunging sail? Is yet to be seen. Once out of the tumult’ would the debilitated enterprise be capable of steering the armada of nations or would others be willing to follow the fractured lead?

Muhammad Shafqat

Mar 2009

Walking through the most precarious times, with Present’ that is gloomier and Future more murky. We are already soaked into the torrents of meltdowns and ruination while augur the clouds of dearth and wrangle. Courses and resources, population and pollution, ideologies and religion, affluent and deficient’ all steaming up to become a perilous fusion’ getting ready to explode’ all at once. We can see the portending clouds heading right in our direction while we stand, forecast and yet prepare for nothing except’ to wrangle our acquittal through the quagmire of economic liquefaction. Thus we stand to embrace yet another era of struggle and scuffle spreading over an age confined only by perpetual imagination…

Every ensuing issue incarcerates a dilemma for human race’ while holding potential for a major spill over and disaster. Population explosion would ultimately dilate the sparking gap between have and have nots, while ensuing the potential for conflicts’ be ethnic or ideological. More the us’ genesis more the need and greed, requiring more land, resources, energy and capacity’ thus paving way for extra consumption, wastage, pollution and deterioration. Already’ we are into heated debates about reservoirs and rivers, age of peak oil, struggle for minerals and land grabs for dwellers. Mother earth for the first time in her billion year existence is perceiving ineffectuality in meeting demands of her inhabitants, who are becoming more of parasite then symbiotic. Can we survive this ruthless journey? We can’t cope with insufficient; can we cope with the absolute Nothing?

Opening Pandora with the imminent energy calamity…

Just like the lending spree that lead to mortgage fiasco and hence an economic turmoil, $40 per barrel also ticks as a stemming time bomb that when explode’ would shiver the substratum of freshly healed global economy! Fall of the Green Back lead the gates for massive investment to flow into the commodity souk, letting oil to stroke unimaginable ceilings, though it has fallen to new depths since but that tumultuous period broke the already fractured global economy’ hit hard by the ruptured mortgage bubble. The spike in oil prices lead those countries who other wise could have survived the global economic seizure’ to bankruptcies because of the massive imbalance of payments. The soaring prices acted as a stumbling breaker that flattened the momentum of an already ruptured engine that had lost its steam by the mortgage detonation. No doubt’ the sudden spike acted as a catalyst in intoxicating the whole system but on the other hand it boosted leverage of energy industry that suddenly saw massive capital flow for advancing exploration and development of under and undeveloped fields. In this close system of ours’ dilemma for one is a boon for other, and so is the other way round!

As we stand today on $50 ground’ the situation is equally perplexing, artificial and unsustainable as the previous one. Firstly’ damage the spike had done was acute enough to knock off the consuming impetus out of the system, strengthen by the collapse of financial order, thus no matter how thin the price gets’ its not going to comfort the pain of credit squeeze. Secondly’ every single day where the price stays, makes our future ache! Each dollar below the 70 threshold strains our future energy exploratory endeavor, thus defying present while dashing our future. Its been more then a decade that global oil consumption outstripped supplies, we consume more then discover, even if we discover’ the uncover barrel costs more to explore, gouge, process and dispatch then ever before. Three decades have passed since a field been explored to produce million barrel a day…But the real showdown would begin the moment global economy would bounce back, when demand would severely outstrip all previous supplies and capacity incapable to meet the desired urgency.

Muhammad Shafqat

Mar 2009

Gazing at the sinking age of the era of Great Victoria’

stood the new General’s transpiring rules ready to lead and prevail

breaking the world out of shackles of dominion and protectorate…

Brought the advent of conception of democracy and equality

the deliverance of the generation of wealth and prosperity

the era stood ready to embrace the decree of torch and liberty

the genesis of the age of freedom and sovereignty

ushering the soar of confederation of the United States…

Succeeded struggle against the escalate of tyranny and repression

a commandment foiling the spread of red rancor and Stalin protraction

again ravaged wars upon lands’ wrecking havoc and raze’

retreating adversary to the gallows of destruction and disintegrate

came the rise of the only dominion, the ascendancy of the new realm’

the realm of the One Holy United States…

Begins extortion of the immense power to mutilate

to terminate the very foundations she impregnate

hazed the glare of the incandescence of its glowing stars’

slanting hues of white stripes and red cast

Unable to enfold the enticement of tempting sway

And she shot right in her way…

Embroil the embryo for birth of trinity

an era to embrace the emanation of new weights’

this is the story of end of The One United States

and the legend goes…

Muhammad Shafqat

Feb 2009

The Mumbai incident has again proven instrumental in detracting the track 2 diplomacy and has flushed away all the gains of Confidence Building Measures that the two South Asian nuclear rivals had been up for the past half a decade. It clearly proves this very presumption wrong that ‘keeping all other maters hijacked by the Kashmir issue is insane and ill productive’. There had been a push in trade relations making Pakistan the most viable material supplier for the booming Indian housing industry, Sir Creek and other border issues were being sorted out, exchange of prisoners, visits of celebrities, swap of delegations, peace missions, matches, concerts…all being done while keeping the throbbing issue of Kashmir in lull.

A single incident thousands of miles away from the trigger of all previous wars proved fatal in opening the paradox again. This not only proves that normalizing relations on the pretext of ‘Kashmir-later’ strategy is not only flawed at its very core but jeopardizes any gains made in all other areas whether be diplomatic, trade or public front. Evident is case that the first and foremost causality of this fallacious strategy has been diplomatic disengagement, followed by withdrawal of trade and sporting events. It’s like erection of building on unsound grounds without strong lest any foundations at all. How beautiful it might look’ is bound to devour into the quicksand of myriad of sacrifices, the grave upon which its frail foundations were raised.

Kashmir is awakening. Excessively organized and yet peaceful processions engaging whole of the Muslim population has not only grabbed the attention of Indian and International media but has stirred the Indian policy makers. Previously all incidents were conveniently brushed aside’ being Pakistan sponsored and thus tagged interventionary’ but the latest spade of reaction from across the valley and the first ever economic blockade on the hands of Hindus has flared the relatively hibernated consciousness of freedom struggle against decades of Indian oppression. Seeing the magnitude of recoil, Indian media (known for keeping such issues buried) began questioning the logic of world’s largest democracy clamping sentiments of whole swathes of population. They for the first time ever sensed rage and exasperation that this Muslim community endured upon the hands of world’s largest military concentration. Indian government taken by surprise by the sheer size of Freedom marches ‘though always successful in defaming and debilitating such uprisings to be cross border instigations’ had its own hands bitten in an action to glorify Hindu hardliners by land transfer. Succeeded by incident that blazed the boiling sentiments’ a deliberate economic blockade as punishment on part of Hindus and Government; not only stirred the already fomented situation out of control but induced a cognizance of insecurity and discrimination on part of the sham democracy. This was first time in many years that the lost valley again heard the echoes of rousing Freedom, the roar that not only put cracks into the walls of Red Fort but clattered the world capitals.

Muhammad Shafqat

Nov 2008

Last century is mired with hordes of Financial turmoil that inflicted discomfort and vex to the global and regional economies one after the other. The new century though commenced with the fervor of prosperity and success’ suddenly despite in the presence of complex forecasting models and all the incumbent rules and regulations’ fractured to surface the faltering underlying snags in the financial tectonic plates that now carries the entire world. While such crisis can not be halted altogether, the crux of redressing the current problems should be to cripple the momentum and magnitude of the next financial tremors. Thus the intention behind the transformation of the economy’s body language should be Better Regulations along with strict implementation rather then the tirade of more rules. Especially the realm of Micro-Regulations in Base 2 should be added on with Macro-Regulations that honors the phenomenon of developing through the roots rather then form superficial tissues.

The world has seen more then Hundred Banking crisis but each time these are the bankers who are chided, emergency plans are put into place to cover the loop holes and the story starts again after filling the last ditches without identifying and erecting the most fundamental causes that unfurl the fault lines again. The current quagmire is just an extension and re-happening of the very fundamental and yet inevitable boom burst cycle. These are the banks that render successes and yet fail the Capitalist structure (Predominant system ruling the global economy), thus protecting them is not only vital for health of any financial system but it failure bodes evil for the entire economy, thus regulations which can not halt the collapses are worthless at best. And the root cause of banks crashing out when the social cause of Systemic financial crumple surpasses private cost to individual financial entities. Thus the new set of rules should be such that to transform these externalities to get internalize! Desist the Fall out…

There has always been a tendency to reshape the regulatory system before pondering into complexities of regulatory controls. But it is quite the opposite; the regulations should be erected to project the purpose and reach of the regulatory authority. There also lies difference in the needed professionalism to cater to Micro/Macro prudential regulations, while the former be carried by FSA, the later should come under the domain of Central Banks.Thus a more collaborative, integrated and consolidated approach world wide, first to stabilize the highly turbulent system form spilling more disaster and then to strengthen it on new foundations.

Muhammad Shafqat

Feb 2009

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The Great Depression gave the Second World War and the preceding Bretton Woods, thus set the foundations for a global financial system that lasted 20 short of a Century, until it broke down to child the Depression of 21^st Century. Whether this would also lead to wars is not known, but how it is going to alter the panorama of world financial architecture is being seen with great contemplation’ with vast changes bound to alter the realm of economic theories, institutional structures, global architecture of integration and concurrence and the philosophical outlook.

World has been towing the lines and reaping benefits form the promulgation of Neo-Classical theory, a sharp contrast form the Great Depression, that now stands as a failed adventure. The crash has swallowed almost all the gains that the booming decade of growth, wealth and well being gave to the people of this world and ramshackle the once roaring juggernauts by pushing them into retreat, isolation and dire help. Thus arising from the very free market wisdom, the US and EU fallen back again to the Gold Standard, marred with deflation. This was the failure of theory that gave an inducement to Keynesian economics, the notion under which Governments use Fiscal policies to stimulate growth and confidence when monetary measure fail to promulgate gains.

Looking at the Global horizon one can see the conflicting zones of Surplus and Deficit economies (former excessive savings is reasoned to be the cause of low interest rates, the case of massive liquidity and thus an impetus for degenerated credit quality) Thus a vicious cycle of money being poured by the tech adopting, exploding economies into deficit black holes (US being importer of Foreign Capital at $4 billion per day), giving rise to high corporate savings which were unable to balance out the surging deficits, thus leading to a severe Global capital Imbalance. Clearly deficits on such massive scales are unsustainable, since the collapse an estimated $27 trillion has been wiped out of the Global stock market, 40% This crisis undoubtedly is the result of human excesses, it’s an event tough not separate but the preceding reforms, restructuring, and reallocation and realignment is a continuous process that should not get stopped. It tends to make us focus an think of different facades of disruptive trends generated over the years through a very short window of opportunity that lasts until the pain, but soon as it closes so does the resurgence of vested interests that again takes the reformed body over to seep and infect, paving ways for the next paralysis.

Derivates carry in them leverage that harbors risks, and risks get transferred but do not diminish. Problem is the lack of understanding about the very nature of derivates; it is essentially the representation of basal assets those are linked through leverage. Their forms are only bound by imaginations, as it can take up any shape, thus higher the shapes (as happened in the US with the rise of CDS market) more complex its relation with the underlying platform becomes making its pyramid dynamically more profitable but at the same time even more risky. Such that is the underlying assets become troubled, the whole pyramid begins to crumble. And it is this instability in finance that it should be heavily guarded with regulations’ but as happened in US where the whole derivate paradigm was let to swing with the market forces with no regulated frame work to support. Yes the forces acted and made it grow tall enough to shiver and fragment on its own splintery base’ thus smashing it down with others’ on all…

Muhammad Shafqat

Feb 2009

.

Embrace the orchestra of death’ that tends to glorify symphony of destruction

Behold the gaze of silent spectator that yells for collusion and connivance

Cherish the spiteful soul that corroborates crusades of termination

Foster the conjunction with the flock of vile hordes

Welcome to the statute of New Year of a new century

Welcome to the creed of the apex of civilization!

.

(Cont: Dance with the Wolves)     The all-powerful Israel wreaks havoc on Gaza, killing innumerable civilians in guise of pursuing and eradicating Hamas. World watches in disbelief, Security Council stands in non-conviction’ abortive enough not to assert mere proclamation of sorrow or apprehension, Arab World as always in the state of shock and awe but incapacitated to put an end to this endless carnage, United States in a usually show of defiance stands to guard the continuance of unbridled malefaction. Though the Promised Land is tainted with myriad of conflicts from medieval ages till today but what caused a sudden death to a relative peaceful truce, is the eruption impetuous or there’s something shady?

Starting off’ no matter how strong and bold Israel has become in the last half a century and how ruggedly it preserves the state of its security, still it does not possess the leverage to act against the will and backing of the Unites States. Whether there be threats of unilateral strikes on the Iranian Nuclear facilities, undertaking operations against Beirut, razing the suspected nuclear facility of Damascus or the cleansing of Gaza. This has been the United States that has provided the cover and space to this atomic state in achieving its objectives, thus these are the Americans that absorb and shields Israel form the worldwide rebuff lest condemnation. But why such a massive operation at the brink of changing US administration, why at this particular juncture, there are several explanations to it…

Beginning with…the outgoing Bush Administration’ that is tainted with a charge sheet of disrupting this world peace in an attempt to securing the US interests in critical regions. This President is already departing with the lowest public rating ever in the US history, thus staining the already tarnished administrating when they have noting to lose further is the best chance Israelis can get in the current decade. They know that the Democrates cant afford to gulp Arab’s fury when Obama speaks of mending the US image abroad, the upcoming administration would act as rational players as there’s lot of hope being pinned upon to patch up the wounded relations, they would not be giving a blank cheque or be ready to take the blames for the misadventures of Tel Aviv, thus its better to act swiftly and decisively today then be a source of embarrassment for their new mentors. This somehow leads to a hint that apart form what Hamas was thinking of extracting gains form a limited conflict, this was Israel too that needed this, off course Mossad has always proved to be instrumental in flaring up conflicts. Could this be called a temptating incitement on the hands of Israelis themselves to invite their fury, off course every conflict needs an excuse to conflagrate in today’s world, whether it be spontaneous or self-triggered. But what they have to achieve form all this mess?

First, they have not been at ease in dealing with the Hamas government. They can not sit and talk to a bunch of people whom they call terrorist. This is the reason why, there has not been a single direct contact through out the past several years between Israel and the elected Palestenian government, who boasts of being the first elected legislature ever in the Arab history but those who were greeted by sanctions and starvation by the enlightened democratic world. Also the Israelis are not comfortable with growing popularity and approval rating amongst Palestinians of Hamas that is seen non-corrupt and more people centric then Fatah. Thus the only way left for Israel is to wreak such great a pain that people should start thinking Hamas more of a threat then protector. And this is exactly the reason that civilian casualties today surpasses any previous Israeli invasion. Instead of targeting the Hamas leadership, they are continuously destroying populated schools and refugee shelters. Precision weapons are deliberately being used against people to warn them of their next choice, they are being told not to elect a leadership that do not come to terms with Israel. Thus it might be taken as a bloody exhortation, forced compulsion of Israeli will on people for the next elected choice. Would Palestine be deterred remains to be seen in coming months…

Second, they want to destroy and eradicate Hamas Leadership once for all, by destroying all possible shelters and suspected targets’ enough to drag them back decade or so. They want them weaken and maimed. This in a sense would pave way for the ‘moderates’ to come back, who are flexible enough to make Israelis comfortable.

Now the subject that conspire Israeli involvement in triggering this crisis. The very notion of Shin Bet existence is the infiltration of Palestinian Authority and Population. With the world’s best surveillance systems and self defense capabilities, even the very conviction of Israel caught off-guard is flawed form the very core. How could they not see and identify Kasaams (that triggered the whole conflict) and preempt them form location of a size of large zoo! If we for a moment overlook this unedifying reality then on what grounds the IDF can protect this tiny state form foreign missile attack? Thus the locations were known with cent percent certainty, it was just that they needed these attacks to pave way for a pre-planned retaliation as had happened in past. Every step that Israel takes is prefabricated and calculated, they make plans, select targets, churns diplomatic concessions, load aircrafts, prepares the ground forces and waits for the ‘exact’ moment for showdown, and every time they incite the victim to pull the trigger themselves. Here you go, the whole episode is ready to show the well rehearsed orchestra under the auspicious of terrorism and the right of self defense with the United States on its back and well composed media on its front.

Secondly, the IDF is still feeling the pain of wounds Hezbollah inflicted on them, the mighty military Inc. was embarrassed and had since been figuring ways to wheeze their frustration.

Lastly and the most convincing motive is the Israeli election. Years of violence tribulation has transformed the landscapes of democracies on both the sides of divide, the electorate on either side just can not grasp even a hint of concession given by any leadership given to the other side and this is the reason why Hamas and Olmert are flexing all their options to delineate their respective picture as uncompromising as possible. Though Israel being a highly educated society but years of war and terrorist hysteria has transfigured their psyche to be security centric, thus the threat of any kind be it real or imaginary is bought with absolute blindness. All parties in Israel thus has got the security module as their corner stone, they sell all of their tenants attached with this threat and as the elections await right on corner, the Israeli Democracy is using its fist to determine the next premier, they need to white wash the gross effect of corruption scandal by showcasing their fury against their test subjects, a proven tactic to divert attention form domestic issues by magnifying the threat of Kasaam fireworks, plus they also need the approval of ultra orthodox sect of their society. Unfortunately we have learned to ignore the mistakes, forget blunders and forgive rascals

Muhammad Shafqat

Dec 2008

]]> http://worldanalisis.com/?feed=rss2&p=162 0 http://worldanalisis.com/?p=157 http://worldanalisis.com/?p=157#comments Thu, 23 Apr 2009 18:03:00 +0000 muhammad.shafqat http://worldanalisis.com/?p=157

.

Embrace the orchestra of death’ that tends to glorify symphony of destruction

Behold the gaze of silent spectator that yells for collusion and connivance

Cherish the spiteful soul that corroborates crusades of termination

Foster the conjunction with the flock of vile hordes

Welcome to the statute of New Year of a new century

Welcome to the creed of the apex of civilization!

.

The all-powerful Israel wreaks havoc on Gaza, killing innumerable civilians in guise of pursuing and eradicating Hamas. World watches in disbelief, Security Council stands in non-conviction’ abortive enough not to assert mere proclamation of sorrow or apprehension, Arab World as always in the state of shock and awe but incapacitated to put an end to this endless carnage, United States in a usually show of defiance stands to guard the continuance of unbridled malefaction. Though the Promised Land is tainted with myriad of conflicts from medieval ages till today but what caused a sudden death to a relative peaceful truce, is the eruption impetuous or there’s something shady?

It started with the declaration of an end to peace deal from Hamas with the firing of kasaam rockets (nothing more then the oversized fireworks) into Israeli territory that triggered threats of forceful retaliation. In a state of defiance and stubbornness this foolish practice continued (damaging no more then roof tops and street poles), like Hamas was deliberately inviting retaliation and Gaza’s infliction’ and there they got it. Apaches and Jets loaded with tons of ‘precision’ weapons began to pound the strip, followed by an all out ground assault, until and unless ‘objectives’ were met!

So the question is why the ‘leaders’ of Hamas who have seen the wrath of Israeli military machine on countless occasions still dare to provoke them. Didn’t they know that their dwarfish kasaams can and does not inflict any damage what so ever other then infuriate their muscular neighbour? Didn’t they know that they have no where to run and hide under the watchful eyes of drones and blitz of F-16s? Didn’t they know they their bullets are a no match against shields of Merkava and APCs ? And didn’t they know Kessnet was having election so the point scoring (Palestinian terrorism) in political campaign would go in favor of hardliners? Then why all this bloody mess!!

Point Scoring! Hamas also needed political gains the same way politicians do on other side of the ‘Great Wall’, to score maximum from the panic created by others terrorism. Hamas has forged its image to be an intractable, unyielding firebrand organization which can stand fast while dealing with Israel unlike Fatah which is seen as sham, incapable and corrupt outfit of moderates that don’t bring any good either. So their selling point has always been that Jews needed some one of their own crossness.

But since coming to power, it diluted itself a great both in tone and body language, as it was Hamas that had been keeping the Peace truce for the last several years without any major confrontation. They some how learned to live with political sticks, though helpful in keeping the IDF away from Gazans but with the elections upcoming it again needed to assert its hibernated stance by fighting, defending and ultimately throwing the ‘invited’ intruders out, so that the wounded electorate would give the triumphant Hamas thumbs up for another several years or so. But this time they were highly mistaken, Hamas calculated only their own side of equation without considering what the Israelis would do to balance. They were grossly wrong on the scale of retaliation and destruction. A few dozen casualties was the premeditated figure’ enough to enrage Palestinian populace and that would ultimately be halted under the International Diplomatic and Public pressure, every thing would go to normal and Hamas would be brandished as undefeated victors, a glorious image for their elections.

Though become a standard procedure and successful one in various parts of world, it hasn’t worked for Hamas, at least this time…May be their Fatah brethren are taking advantage of it! Could they be accomplice by being a silent spectator watching the death of Gaza? Who would be the winner if causalities surmount enough to label Hamas more of a threat then a protector for innocent civilians, when hardliners would be undesirable and moderates though corrupt and inefficient would again be given reigns, doesn’t they seem to collude and bear the responsibility of ruination of Hamas and in the process of several hundred Palestinians!!

We should also have a look at the Israeli side of equation, are they really innocent as per provoked or they had their own designs in advance? What ‘objectives’ are they striving to achieve before pull back…cont: “the orchestra of Death”