WORLD ANALISIS, Politics, Religion, Economics, Industry, Telecom, Pakistan, Global Terrorism, movies, Music, Debate, Discussion and Detailed Study

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While the world fights war on terror and struggles against the economic exigency, it scuffles further into the ensuing haze of gloomy clouds, clouds of portending storm’ the storm of inexorable energy crisis. We as a race are heralding towards a future that is deficient in means to quench our insatiable needs, we lie at the very doors of an era where major shifts are in the making’ tectonic leagues of sufficient versus the energy deficient nations are in the casting, tremors are about to jolt the conventional power centers while shifting the ballast of influence and dominion away from the traditional West. What would be the consequences of such a colossal shift? Is the world ready to embrace the czar of the likes of Viladamir, accept the models of Hugos, bow before the coffers of Sauds and live with the nuclear tipped Najaads? With resources becoming vital, scarce and expensive’ would energy be the next weapon of mass influence, the tool for global hegemony and a win chip for blank concessions?

We already have stepped into this precarious era! Demand is stripping supplies and it’s just a matter of time when a sudden stampede would trigger massive avalanche of antagonism and clash. And that matter of time is only strides away when the world would be back on its feet’ when confidence would resurrect, pushing economies to grow’ thus setting off the dormant strains to press the till-now hibernated fault lines to fracture and explode. Towing the bottom-line and realizing a simple fact; our planet with all its resources cannot brace even a fourth of human population at par with the American Dream, thus the very presumption of today’s developing giants striding towards the realization of such a delusion is not just fallacious but also destructive. Living and consuming at such pace would render this planet a premature death’ thus ramming its inhabitants on to the path of suicidal whirl!

With the race already on for sealing’ if not stealing world’s vitality chowks, significant repositioning of alliance and allegiances are in the making. With the energy hungry dragon awake’ ready to devour what ever it takes to quench its thirst, those already having stakes stands hassled and perturbed and while they are entangled into getting themselves unravel from the financial calamity’ the red beast sails across continents on acquisition splurge. Standing tall on reserves worth trillions with wings spread wide’ a single month of o-9 saw her sealing resources from swathes of Zuela to the seas of PetroBras, from Horn of Africa to the Nefts of Siberia, from mines of Alum to the corps of Australia. Thus the resurgent Dynasty is ready to roar and roar loud’ enough to scare off the fatigued and fragile. Does this lead world to a path of collision? Could this be the beginning of an age of confrontation and desolation?

While betting upon one thing; neither the West with all its power concentration nor the ascending East with growing dynamism and weight’ are ready to give up on their existing or realizing paradigms. Thus in an ideal world based upon the foundations of mutual respect, space and honor for each others prosperousness’ we see both working together’ efficiently harnessing the unexplored while sagaciously distributing the existing ones. This not only would avert a prodigious clash but save the rest from crowding-out shiver!

But unfortunately’ our world as it stands today has transformed tremendously; getting complex, confused, entangled and yet more wary! We as nation states have metamorphed to become more skeptical and dubious then betting on trust and truthfulness. We have integrated under the umbrella of WTO yet have ceased to exist under the aegis of the existence of commons. And as the world comes out of the Great Seizure’ and exerts to gain control of world supplies under the marathon to redeem the lost glory, the realm of attrition would undoubtedly swell and bleed. And thus would dawn the age of an era of the ‘clash for resources’ and the ’struggle for survival’

Muhammad Shafqat

April 2009

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Though nobody really knows how the world economic crisis is going to end but one thing is for sure that’ future historians would draw parallels between the current credit crisis with that of the Great Depression’ as there lies extreme analogies between the two. The last pour was the outcome of the First World War and set into motion the Second, just like today’s GWOT’ and changed on its way the realm of economic philosophical thinking and theories that governed the world’ while founding the specter of paradigm for Global Financial System’ whose reign lasted for 80 long years. Just like exceptional growth in the era starting off 2000’ Great Depression also dressed up under the windfall of splendid wealth and strikingly’ both triggered from the collapse of mortgage industry’ resulted in a Domino crumple of Banking and Insurance sectors that lead to today’s calls of sundering the two’ sounding very similar to Steagall Act of last century.

Economies work in a loop’ a closed cycle and its very intriguing that after having sniffed through all the ebb we haven’t yet learned its very bible! The world as we see today ignore and forgets every thing ‘critical might that be’ the moment it deluges into the Nova of pro tempore fringes. Call this greed, passion, ignorance or madness, but the fact remains that’ droves of such aspirations ruined this world over and over again. Shall we learn or should we learn’ sounds ineffectual and abortive without shedding light on causes’ those been botched and forgotten.

The Fed Chairman accuses saving spree of East’ being the prolific ground of fall of the West! But this is just a small fraction of the whole story. Regulators on the western coast foresaw this rising tsunami charging right in their direction and instead of reinforcements they made levies go thin rather melt’ despite incontrovertible evidence of the havoc it shrouded in its seemingly placate torso…and we saw it come, wreak, devastate and level what ever surfaced in its chase. Excessive glut attenuated the interest rates and flooded credit quality with high volatility’ thus ruining and deforming the plinth of global financial solvency. This whole specter of easy-credit got flared up under the shadows of extravagant demand both on the government and public level, catalyzed by the milieu of tampered and manipulated regulations. The sunken tower of yields and gains was already swaying vigorously under the unsustainable winds, but instead of bracing the very foundations’ callous voraciousness and stupendous irresponsibility made this structure go gangling. A fractional hike in Fed interest rate was the trigger that unleashed the unforeseen demolition, making the “statue of recklessness” fall and fall hard. But all the tremors and terminations of century old institutions of the likes of Lehmans and AIGs were just the tip of iceberg, the captain and crew of the struggling Titanic are still not sure of the extent of damage underneath, they are scuffling to save the sinking giant.

The great spill has already ruined the lush interior while devouring it’s the most priciest assets, the team in order to lighten the mammoth of toxic burden has already shifted, unloaded or destroyed tonnage of its ruptured engines. The cost of saving onboard assets has shot to a whooping Eight Trillion, still no effort seems effective enough to bud the great leak. Just a simple loitering has soaked up Fifty Trillion out of the global stock and equity market’ yet prognostication of even greater spoilage looms with blatant conspicuousness. The ripples of this seizure have already jostled shores of the entire world, but would this world come to rescue of struggling Captain and how would they trail the plunging sail? Is yet to be seen. Once out of the tumult’ would the debilitated enterprise be capable of steering the armada of nations or would others be willing to follow the fractured lead?

Muhammad Shafqat

Mar 2009

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Walking through the most precarious times, with Present’ that is gloomier and Future more murky. We are already soaked into the torrents of meltdowns and ruination while augur the clouds of dearth and wrangle. Courses and resources, population and pollution, ideologies and religion, affluent and deficient’ all steaming up to become a perilous fusion’ getting ready to explode’ all at once. We can see the portending clouds heading right in our direction while we stand, forecast and yet prepare for nothing except’ to wrangle our acquittal through the quagmire of economic liquefaction. Thus we stand to embrace yet another era of struggle and scuffle spreading over an age confined only by perpetual imagination…

Every ensuing issue incarcerates a dilemma for human race’ while holding potential for a major spill over and disaster. Population explosion would ultimately dilate the sparking gap between have and have nots, while ensuing the potential for conflicts’ be ethnic or ideological. More the us’ genesis more the need and greed, requiring more land, resources, energy and capacity’ thus paving way for extra consumption, wastage, pollution and deterioration. Already’ we are into heated debates about reservoirs and rivers, age of peak oil, struggle for minerals and land grabs for dwellers. Mother earth for the first time in her billion year existence is perceiving ineffectuality in meeting demands of her inhabitants, who are becoming more of parasite then symbiotic. Can we survive this ruthless journey? We can’t cope with insufficient; can we cope with the absolute Nothing?

Opening Pandora with the imminent energy calamity…

Just like the lending spree that lead to mortgage fiasco and hence an economic turmoil, $40 per barrel also ticks as a stemming time bomb that when explode’ would shiver the substratum of freshly healed global economy! Fall of the Green Back lead the gates for massive investment to flow into the commodity souk, letting oil to stroke unimaginable ceilings, though it has fallen to new depths since but that tumultuous period broke the already fractured global economy’ hit hard by the ruptured mortgage bubble. The spike in oil prices lead those countries who other wise could have survived the global economic seizure’ to bankruptcies because of the massive imbalance of payments. The soaring prices acted as a stumbling breaker that flattened the momentum of an already ruptured engine that had lost its steam by the mortgage detonation. No doubt’ the sudden spike acted as a catalyst in intoxicating the whole system but on the other hand it boosted leverage of energy industry that suddenly saw massive capital flow for advancing exploration and development of under and undeveloped fields. In this close system of ours’ dilemma for one is a boon for other, and so is the other way round!

As we stand today on $50 ground’ the situation is equally perplexing, artificial and unsustainable as the previous one. Firstly’ damage the spike had done was acute enough to knock off the consuming impetus out of the system, strengthen by the collapse of financial order, thus no matter how thin the price gets’ its not going to comfort the pain of credit squeeze. Secondly’ every single day where the price stays, makes our future ache! Each dollar below the 70 threshold strains our future energy exploratory endeavor, thus defying present while dashing our future. Its been more then a decade that global oil consumption outstripped supplies, we consume more then discover, even if we discover’ the uncover barrel costs more to explore, gouge, process and dispatch then ever before. Three decades have passed since a field been explored to produce million barrel a day…But the real showdown would begin the moment global economy would bounce back, when demand would severely outstrip all previous supplies and capacity incapable to meet the desired urgency.

Muhammad Shafqat

Mar 2009

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Gazing at the sinking age of the era of Great Victoria’

stood the new General’s transpiring rules ready to lead and prevail

breaking the world out of shackles of dominion and protectorate…

Brought the advent of conception of democracy and equality

the deliverance of the generation of wealth and prosperity

the era stood ready to embrace the decree of torch and liberty

the genesis of the age of freedom and sovereignty

ushering the soar of confederation of the United States…

Succeeded struggle against the escalate of tyranny and repression

a commandment foiling the spread of red rancor and Stalin protraction

again ravaged wars upon lands’ wrecking havoc and raze’

retreating adversary to the gallows of destruction and disintegrate

came the rise of the only dominion, the ascendancy of the new realm’

the realm of the One Holy United States…

Begins extortion of the immense power to mutilate

to terminate the very foundations she impregnate

hazed the glare of the incandescence of its glowing stars’

slanting hues of white stripes and red cast

Unable to enfold the enticement of tempting sway

And she shot right in her way…

Embroil the embryo for birth of trinity

an era to embrace the emanation of new weights’

this is the story of end of The One United States

and the legend goes…

Muhammad Shafqat

Feb 2009

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The Mumbai incident has again proven instrumental in detracting the track 2 diplomacy and has flushed away all the gains of Confidence Building Measures that the two South Asian nuclear rivals had been up for the past half a decade. It clearly proves this very presumption wrong that ‘keeping all other maters hijacked by the Kashmir issue is insane and ill productive’. There had been a push in trade relations making Pakistan the most viable material supplier for the booming Indian housing industry, Sir Creek and other border issues were being sorted out, exchange of prisoners, visits of celebrities, swap of delegations, peace missions, matches, concerts…all being done while keeping the throbbing issue of Kashmir in lull.

A single incident thousands of miles away from the trigger of all previous wars proved fatal in opening the paradox again. This not only proves that normalizing relations on the pretext of ‘Kashmir-later’ strategy is not only flawed at its very core but jeopardizes any gains made in all other areas whether be diplomatic, trade or public front. Evident is case that the first and foremost causality of this fallacious strategy has been diplomatic disengagement, followed by withdrawal of trade and sporting events. It’s like erection of building on unsound grounds without strong lest any foundations at all. How beautiful it might look’ is bound to devour into the quicksand of myriad of sacrifices, the grave upon which its frail foundations were raised.

Kashmir is awakening. Excessively organized and yet peaceful processions engaging whole of the Muslim population has not only grabbed the attention of Indian and International media but has stirred the Indian policy makers. Previously all incidents were conveniently brushed aside’ being Pakistan sponsored and thus tagged interventionary’ but the latest spade of reaction from across the valley and the first ever economic blockade on the hands of Hindus has flared the relatively hibernated consciousness of freedom struggle against decades of Indian oppression. Seeing the magnitude of recoil, Indian media (known for keeping such issues buried) began questioning the logic of world’s largest democracy clamping sentiments of whole swathes of population. They for the first time ever sensed rage and exasperation that this Muslim community endured upon the hands of world’s largest military concentration. Indian government taken by surprise by the sheer size of Freedom marches ‘though always successful in defaming and debilitating such uprisings to be cross border instigations’ had its own hands bitten in an action to glorify Hindu hardliners by land transfer. Succeeded by incident that blazed the boiling sentiments’ a deliberate economic blockade as punishment on part of Hindus and Government; not only stirred the already fomented situation out of control but induced a cognizance of insecurity and discrimination on part of the sham democracy. This was first time in many years that the lost valley again heard the echoes of rousing Freedom, the roar that not only put cracks into the walls of Red Fort but clattered the world capitals.

Muhammad Shafqat

Nov 2008